Bombers set to boost their percentage
The Age
Friday June 19, 2009
WITH only three games this weekend because of the split round, betting opportunities are slightly limited, but the Bombers should get punters off to a flying start by easily accounting for Melbourne tonight at Etihad Stadium.Essendon is still a long way off being a contender for the flag but its speed has troubled most sides. It has won five from 11 this season, including beating the higher-credentialled Carlton, Hawthorn and Collingwood. Melbourne is doing it tough, on the bottom of the ladder with one win, and I can't see it turning it around tonight.Essendon will welcome back experienced trio Dustin Fletcher, Jason Winderlich and Andrew Welsh for his first game of the season. Defence has been Essendon's big weakness this year and these three will make a huge difference, especially Fletcher, given the loss of tall players through injury. Welsh will provide more run off half-back while Winderlich has been fantastic with his run out of the stoppages.Melbourne has shown fight in most games but it is a young, inexperienced side and doesn't look particularly quick, which will be a major concern if Essendon gets its running game going.The Bombers are good things and should comfortably cover the line (-22.5 points) so have a good go at the $1.92. They will also be looking to build on their poor percentage so the over-39.5 points also looks a good bet at $3.05. The Bombers are the bet of the round so start off all your multiples with them and use the different point spreads available to add some value as the $1.28 seems a touch short.Sydney and Collingwood do battle at ANZ Stadium tomorrow night and it looks like the bookies can't split them. I think it will be a close game but I lean towards the Pies as they look to be going a little better than the Swans. The Swans have been very inconsistent and while the Pies have been a bit up and down as well, they have won their past three and look to be running into form.The Swans have a reasonable record at ANZ Stadium - but certainly not against Collingwood. The Pies have won four of their past six against the Swans at ANZ and the two losses were by six points and one point. Collingwood has won the past three clashes and each time the Swans were favourites. If this game was in Melbourne, Collingwood would be clear favourite. The Swans are a better side at the SCG, where they seem to be able to crowd the game up and play to their game plan, but on the open expanses of ANZ Stadium I think Collingwood will be too quick and classy.Collingwood should be favourite, in my opinion, so the $1.92 is great value. It will certainly put value into the multiples so be sure to include the Pies as I think they're over the odds. Essendon (-22.5 points) $1.92 x Collingwood $1.92 is a good value double at $3.68.Geelong deserves to be $1.08 against Fremantle at Subiaco on Sunday as there is no logical reason why Fremantle could or would beat it. I do think it will be a bit closer than expected, however, and if I had to have a bet on this game I would have to back Fremantle at the +44.5 points start ($1.92).The best value multiple combination of the round is Essendon -22.5 ($1.92) x Collingwood ($1.92) x Fremantle +44.5 ($1.92) for a dividend of $7.07. Take this and you should have a "live" game on Sunday.
© 2009 The Age
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